Machine Learning in Football · 11
The road to the final
The group stage is done; thirty-two teams remain. The same Dixon-Coles model — frozen the day before the tournament opened, the very ratings the Forecast piece is graded on — reads the whole knockout draw. Every tie gets a chance of going through; the bracket gets rolled forward forty-thousand times to ask the only question that matters now: who lifts the trophy? Click any tie to open it up.
The ladder
The knockout bracket
Each tie shows the model's chance that each side advances — a knockout has no draws, so a level game after 90 minutes is taken to extra time and, if needed, penalties (close to a coin flip). The brighter, bolder name is the favourite. Played ties lock to their real result and the projection re-sharpens. Tap a tie for the full read.
scroll sideways to see the whole draw →
The title race
Who wins it all?
Each remaining team's chance of lifting the trophy, from forty-thousand simulations of the draw from here. Click a team to jump to its next tie.
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